A Slow-Rolling Disaster: Assessing the Impact of the Covid-19 Pandemic on Militant Violence

Despite alarming predications about the Covid 19 pandemic that appear to fit the literature on the impact of natural disasters on civil wars, there are reasons to be suspicious that a rise in militant violence would likely occur quickly or uniformly. Although the COVID-19 pandemic is most definitely a disaster that caught the world by surprise, this "slow-rolling” shock differs in important ways from the more commonly studied acute onset natural disasters such as earthquakes, hurricanes, and tsunamis that often increase violent competition among groups for scarce resources. Instead, the effects of slow-rolling disasters unfold in phases that, at least in the short run, are likely to encourage a period of relative decline in violence, as actors try and assess the effects of COVID-19 on their organization and their opponents. Both statistical and qualitative evidence from the initial months of the COVID-19 pandemic supports the initial phases of our theory. [ FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of Journal of Conflict Resolution is the property of Sage Publications Inc. and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full . (Copyright applies to all s.)

The Current Crisis Intensifies the Economic Contrasts in the World's Major Cities. Driven by the Pandemic, and Other Negative Aspects

The general objective of this research was to determine the probable mechanisms to counteract the impoverishing effects and whose confluence is driving the current crisis, through scientific and technological advances to move towards a more equitable economy, with less income inequality between social groups and less social mobility to move towards a more equitable economy, with lower income inequality between social groups and less social mobility. The methodology of Kitchenham (2004) was used to carry out a Systematic Literature Review (RSL). The PICOC framework was used to identify the central elements of the research question (Booth, Sutton, & Papaioannou, 2016) Some international organizations report that the crisis caused by the COVID 19 pandemic will continue until 2030. Well, 2020 was recharged in the poorest and most vulnerable. The World Bank calls "chronic poor" -rural population dedicated to agriculture and livestock -with the pandemic new poor were evidenced in the cities, among people with higher educational degrees, dedicated to services, construction and manufacturing, and especially in the younger population. The World Bank projects that in the long run the crisis is likely to increase inequality within countries, the economy had its biggest drop in 90 years and millions of people lost their jobs. And he emphasizes that the pandemic, armed conflicts and climate change are the 3 factors whose confluence is driving the current crisis and its impact will extend into the future. The World Bank also reports that even if we are optimistic, the impoverishing effects of the pandemic will be colossal. And that the tech billionaires bulged their wealth in the midst of the crisis.

The Casualties of War: An Excess Mortality Estimate of Lives Lost in the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict.

Who and how many died in the 2020 Karabakh War? With limited evidence provided by authorities, media outlets, and human rights organizations, still little is known about the death toll caused by the 44-day conflict in and around Nagorno-Karabakh. This paper provides a first assessment of the human cost of the war. Using age-sex vital registration data from Armenia, Azerbaijan, and the de facto Republic of Artsakh/Nagorno-Karabakh, we difference the 2020 observed mortality values from expected deaths based on trends in mortality between 2015 and 2019 to offer sensible estimates of excess mortality resulting from the conflict. We compare and contrast our findings with neighboring peaceful countries with similar mortality patterns and socio-cultural background and discuss them against the backdrop of the concurrent first wave of Covid-19. We estimate that the war led to almost 6,500 excess deaths among people aged 15-49. Nearly 2,800 excess losses occurred in Armenia, 3,400 in Azerbaijan, and 310 in de facto Artsakh. Deaths were highly concentrated among late adolescent and young adult males, suggesting that most excess mortality was directly related to combat. Beyond the human tragedy, for small countries like Armenia and Azerbaijan, such loss of young men represents a considerable long-term cost for future demographic, economic, and social development. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11113-023-09790-2.

Vaccines between war and market

This short paper presents a theoretical analysis that is intended to throw light on some issues related to the supply of vaccines in a context where producer countries are involved in armed conflicts. We present a simple model which combines elements of Hirshleifer-style economic analysis of conflict and microeconomic modelling of oligopolistic markets. In particular, we apply a simple Cournot duopoly model to two producer countries. Findings show that world supply of vaccines is indirectly and negatively affected by the existence of armed conflicts in a producer country that is involved in an armed conflict. Yet such negative impact on supply also increases the world price. In brief, participation of producer countries in armed conflicts turns out to be detrimental for global supply of vaccines. © The Author(s) 2023.

Winter in Europe 2022-2023 - Concerns About The Effects of The Energy Crisis On Indoor Environmental Quality and Public Health

The fall of 2022 finds the old continent in a highly problematic economic and political context. The effects of the covid pandemic have not yet been overcome, but new problems generated by an armed conflict in Europe and a harsh climate context have been added. European political leaders are stuck on topics related to saving resources and the economic survival of their own countries. The economic and social measures suggested by the political class under the pressure of the approaching winter risk generate effects on the population's health with more devastating long-term results than the covid pandemic. Reducing electricity consumption at any cost, reducing water consumption, and adjusting the thermal comfort parameters in dwellings on a large scale can affect the population's health and lead to subsequent costs that are difficult to estimate. This paper tries to analyze this context and identify a method for evaluating the effects on indoor environmental quality. © 2022 IEEE.

The impact of distance education on students' motivation and emotional state in the context of the pandemic and the armed conflict in Ukraine

The aim of the research was to explore the impact of distance education on students' motivation and emotional state in Ukraine during the lockdown caused by the COVID-19 pandemic of 2020-2022 and the armed conflict beginning February 24, 2022. The research was carried out via Ukraine's regional survey by using a convenient tool - Google Forms, which provided quick feedback from respondents in the form of answers to questions. The survey was conducted in compliance with the ethical research standards. The approach was a quantitative, descriptive -correlational design conducted among 858 students at the State University of Trade and Economics, Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv, National Aviation University, Borys Grinchenko Kyiv University, National University of Life and Environmental Science of Ukraine, and the Kyiv National Linguistic University in Ukraine. The novelty of the study lies in the fact that providing a safe educational environment for students is one of the main objectives of the educational process in wartime conditions and lockdown. The practical significance of the study lies in the possibility of using the proposed practical solutions to improve the organization of the educational process of higher education institutions under conditions of war and lockdown.

Rethinking the frontiers of vaccine acceptance: Impact of visual messages in promoting the actual intake of COVID-19 vaccines among vulnerable populations.

Studies on COVID-19 vaccine mainly focused on behavior intention and rarely on actual intake. This study attempted to fill this gap by assessing the impact of visual artistic messages on COVID-19 vaccination among victims of insecurity. The study was a quasi-experiment involving 362 victims of insecurity. There were two groups in the quasi experiment known as control and treatment groups. The former did not receive the intervention while the latter did. The results of the study revealed that vaccination among the participants in the visual intervention improved from 12% before the visual intervention to 74% after the intervention and 95% after 6 months of follow-up assessment. On the contrary, COVID-19 vaccination for the no visual intervention only slightly improved from 13% to 18% and 19%, respectively, within the same time framework. The study expands the argument on security discourse by highlighting the need to consider the health welfare of victims of armed conflict as part of the larger security discourse. Doing so will not only improves existing literature but also provides the needed empirical data that will guide policies and program on security issues. Theoretically, the study has offered fresh understanding regarding variables from the health belief model, such as perceived severity and perceived vulnerability.

Corporal Practices and armed conflict: Colombia

This article intends to identify and recognize the corporal practices that non-governmental organizations in Colombia deal with, regarding the victims of the armed conflict. It implied a characterization of the organizations regarding the way of observing the body, corporal practices and violence;a criticism of the Victims and Land Reparation Law (as a regulator of attention, assistance, reparation and monitoring of the types of victimization);as well as an observation of the behavior of the subject in the face of the intervention of COVID-19. It was then obtained that, although at present, the Colombian leadership bodies have taken measures regarding the victims of the armed conflict, the laws have made the real needs of the population independent of what is intended to be replaced. On the other hand, in the face of the changes generated during the pandemic, two levels of intervention were identified: one that made it possible to potentiate the practices of organizations through the mediation of information technologies;and another in which the intervention processes were limited or completely stopped. From the analysis of eight semi-structured interviews, the impacts of the war on the body and the practices of reexisting are analyzed;finding that the repair must be understood from a holistic perspective of the human being. The work provides a concept of health based on thirteen body practices found;contributing to the health and comprehensive reparation of the victims, both internal and external reconciliation from within the affected person.

Adult mortality before and during the first wave of COVID-19 pandemic in nine communities of Yemen: a key informant study.

INTRODUCTION: Widespread armed conflict has affected Yemen since 2014. To date, the mortality toll of seven years of crisis, and any excess due to the COVID-19 pandemic, are not well quantified. We attempted to estimate population mortality during the pre-pandemic and pandemic periods in nine purposively selected urban and rural communities of southern and central Yemen (Aden and Ta'iz governorates), totalling > 100,000 people. METHODS: Within each study site, we collected lists of decedents between January 2014-March 2021 by interviewing different categories of key community informants, including community leaders, imams, healthcare workers, senior citizens and others. After linking records across lists based on key variables, we applied two-, three- or four-list capture-recapture analysis to estimate total death tolls. We also computed death rates by combining these estimates with population denominators, themselves subject to estimation. RESULTS: After interviewing 138 disproportionately (74.6%) male informants, we identified 2445 unique decedents. While informants recalled deaths throughout the study period, reported deaths among children were sparse: we thus restricted analysis to persons aged ≥ 15 years old. We noted a peak in reported deaths during May-July 2020, plausibly coinciding with the first COVID-19 wave. Death rate estimates featured uninformatively large confidence intervals, but appeared elevated compared to the non-crisis baseline, particularly in two sites where a large proportion of deaths were attributed to war injuries. There was no clear-cut evidence of excess mortality during the pandemic period. CONCLUSIONS: We found some evidence of a peak in mortality during the early phase of the pandemic, but death rate estimates were otherwise too imprecise to enable strong inference on trends. Estimates suggested substantial mortality elevations from baseline during the crisis period, but are subject to serious potential biases. The study highlighted challenges of data collection in this insecure, politically contested environment.

Interview with Gerard Quinn

The Special Rapporteur position was created in the 1990s. I think the timing was significant, as it coincided with the enactment of the American Disabilities Act (ADA), which had a huge ripple effect around the world. It also coincided with a special resolution of the United Nations (UN) General Assembly on equal opportunities for persons with disabilities, which was a non-binding resolution. The Special Rapporteur position was set up around that time to answer to the Commission for Social Development, and the first mandate holder was Swedish: Mr Bengt Lindqvist.1 The fact that the Special Rapporteur was answerable to the Commission for Social Development somehow tells a lot, as it means it was not really anchored on the human rights side of the house, which only came later once the UN Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities (CRPD)2 was adopted in 2006. As such, the Special Rapporteur position switched from the Commission for Social Development to the Human Rights Council. The first person appointed to the new mandate started in 2014, Mrs Catalina Devandas Aguilar3 (2014-2020). I am the second person appointed and I started in 2020, regrettably when COVID began. © The Author(s), 2022. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of the ICRC.

Do we cope similarly with different adversities? COVID-19 versus armed conflict.

BACKGROUND: Varied populations may react differently to similar crises, depending on their social, cultural, and personal backgrounds; conversely, the same populations may respond differently to varied adversities. The current study aimed to examine three types of resilience (individual, community, and societal resilience) predicting six coping mechanisms (sense of danger, anxiety and depressive symptoms, well-being, hope, and morale) among the same sample of people that faced across two different adversities-COVID-19 and an armed conflict. METHODS: Two repeated measurements of the same Israeli sample (N = 593) were employed, through an internet panel. The research variables were examined through a structured, quantitative questionnaire that consisted of nine scales, based on validated and reliable questionnaires. RESULTS: Results indicated that: (a) respondents reported more difficulties in coping with the COVID-19 crisis, compared to the armed conflict, in all variables but morale. (b) similar patterns of correlations among the study variables were found in both measurements. (c) path's analysis indicated similar patterns of prediction of distress and well-being by individual and societal resilience. Use of the coping mechanism varied depending on the perception of the threat: COVID -19 is perceived as a less familiar and predictable adversity, which is harder to cope with, compared with the more familiar risk - an armed conflict, which is a recurrent threat in Israel. The correlations between the investigated psychological responses and the impacts of resilience on the coping and distress mechanism were similar in both adversities. CONCLUSIONS: The results indicate that respondents tend to react in a similar pattern of associations among resilience, distress, and well-being across different adversities, such as COVID and armed conflict. However, individuals tend to regard unfamiliar, less predictable adversities as more complex to cope with, compared to better-known crises. Furthermore, respondents tend to underestimate the risks of potential familiar adversities. Healthcare professionals must be aware of and understand the coping mechanisms of individuals during adversities, to appropriately design policies for the provision of medical and psychological care during varied emergencies.

Adapting DIALOG+ in a School Setting-A Tool to Support Well-being and Resilience in Adolescents Living in Postconflict Areas During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Protocol for a Cluster Randomized Exploratory Study.

BACKGROUND: Colombia has a long history of an armed conflict that has severely affected communities with forced internal displacement and violence. Victims of violence and armed conflicts have higher rates of mental health disorders, and children and adolescents are particularly affected. However, the mental health needs of this population are often overlooked, especially in low- and middle-Income countries, where scarcity of resources exacerbates the problem that has been further compounded by the global COVID-19 pandemic. Thus, special attention should be paid to the development of interventions that target this population. OBJECTIVE: Our research aims to adapt an existing patient-centered digital intervention called DIALOG+ from a clinical setting to an educational setting using stakeholders' (teachers' and students') perspectives. We aim to evaluate the feasibility, acceptability, and estimated effect of implementing this intervention as a tool for the identification and mobilization of personal and social resources to mitigate the impact of social difficulties and to promote mental well-being. METHODS: We will conduct an exploratory mixed methods study in public schools of postconflict areas in Tolima, Colombia. The study consists of 3 phases: adaptation, exploration, and consolidation of the DIALOG+ tool. The adaptation phase will identify possible changes that the intervention requires on the basis of data from focus groups with teachers and students. The exploration phase will be an exploratory cluster randomized trial with teachers and school counselors to assess the acceptability, feasibility, and estimated effect of DIALOG+ for adolescents in school settings. Adolescents' data about mental health symptoms and wellness will be collected before and after DIALOG+ implementation. During this phase, teachers or counselors who were part of the intervention group will share their opinions through the think-aloud method. Lastly, the consolidation phase will consist of 2 focus groups with teachers and students to discuss their experiences and to understand acceptability. RESULTS: Study recruitment was completed in March 2022, and follow-up is anticipated to last through November 2022. CONCLUSIONS: This exploratory study will evaluate the acceptability, feasibility, and estimated effect of DIALOG+ for adolescents in postconflict school settings in Colombia. The use of this technology-supported tool aims to support interactions between teachers or counselors and students and to provide an effective student-centered communication guide. This is an innovative approach in both the school and the postconflict contexts that could help improve the mental health and wellness of adolescents in vulnerable zones in Colombia. Subsequent studies will be needed to evaluate the effectiveness of DIALOG+ in an educational context as a viable option to reduce the gap and inequities of mental health care access. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN Registry ISRCTN14396374; https://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN14396374?q=ISRCTN14396374. INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID): DERR1-10.2196/40286.

Worlds of Pain: A process evaluation of the Caregiver Support Intervention with Syrian refugees in Lebanon

This paper reports on a process evaluation conducted as part of a randomized controlled trial of the Caregiver Support Intervention (CSI), a nine-session preventive group psychosocial intervention, with Syrian refugees in Lebanon (n = 480, 240 families). Fifteen focus group discussions (FGDs) were conducted with 122 CSI participants (51% of participants in the intervention arm of the trial), including 63 female and 59 male caregivers. We analyzed the focus group data to explore the mechanism of impact of the CSI on caregiver wellbeing and parenting. We also examine the impact of multiple adversities on the results of the trial, which was conducted in a context of widespread social unrest, a severe economic crisis, and the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite these adversities, participants described improvements in their psychological wellbeing and parenting as a result of the CSI. Changes in parenting include a reduction in harsh parenting and an increase in warm and responsive parenting. Findings suggest a pathway from the mindfulness practices and anger management techniques taught in the CSI, to improved caregiver wellbeing, to positive changes in parenting. Participants described becoming less angry and more patient, as well as better able to lower their arousal before responding to conflictual situations with their children. Increased knowledge of positive parenting also contributed to changes in parenting. About half of focus group participants reported a marked attenuation of effects following the intervention, which they attributed primarily to the high stress generated by the combination of the economic crisis and the pandemic. We examine specific ways in which the focus group findings diverge from the trial results, and consider the limitations of standalone psychosocial interventions in contexts of extreme adversity.

Depression among First-Year University Students in Restive Areas of Southern Thailand during Covid-19 Pandemic

This cross-sectional design study aimed to examine prevalence and associated factors of depressive symptoms among first-year university students, who study at the campus located in the restive area of Southern Thailand's insurgency (Pattani campus);during the COVID-19 pandemic, and to compare them with those who studied in a nearby province: (Hat Yai campus). A total of 865 first-year university students who studied at Prince of Songkla University were assessed by PHQ-9 online questionnaires during their first trimester of higher education and the second outbreak of COVID-19 in Thailand. Descriptive analysis, Chi-square and logistic regression analysis were conducted using R software package. The majority of the students who studied at Pattani campus, located in armed conflicted areas of southern Thailand, were female and Muslim, whereas most of those who studied at Hat Yai Campus, located in a nearby province, were Buddhist. About half of the students studying at Pattani and Hat Yai Campuses showed mild-to-severe depressive symptoms, without statistically significant difference between two campuses. However, 20% of those who studied at Pattani campus showed moderate-tosevere depression. Frequency of exercise was significantly associated with depressive symptoms among students who studied at both campuses, whereas physical comorbidities, and financial difficulties were significantly associated with depression among those who studied in armed conflict areas.

Determinants of Survival of HIV Patients Receiving Dolutegravir: A Prospective Cohort Study in Conflict-Affected Bunia, Democratic Republic of Congo.

This study aims to determine the factors influencing HIV-related mortality in settings experiencing continuous armed conflict atrocities. In such settings, people living with HIV (PLHIV), and the partners of those affected may encounter specific difficulties regarding adherence to antiretroviral therapy (ART), and retention in HIV prevention, treatment, and care programs. Between July 2019 and July 2021, we conducted an observational prospective cohort study of 468 PLHIV patients treated with Dolutegravir at all the ART facilities in Bunia. The probability of death being the primary outcome, as a function of time of inclusion in the cohort, was determined using Kaplan-Meier plots. We used the log-rank test to compare survival curves and Cox proportional hazard modeling to determine mortality predictors from the baseline to 31 July 2021 (endpoint). The total number of person-months (p-m) was 3435, with a death rate of 6.70 per 1000 p-m. Compared with the 35-year-old reference group, older patients had a higher mortality risk. ART-naïve participants at the time of enrollment had a higher mortality risk than those already using ART. Patients with a high baseline viral load (≥1000 copies/mL) had a higher mortality risk compared with the reference group (adjusted hazard ratio = 6.04; 95% CI: 1.78-20.43). One-fourth of deaths in the cohort were direct victims of armed conflict, with an estimated excess death of 35.6%. Improving baseline viral load monitoring, starting ART early in individuals with high baseline viral loads, the proper tailoring of ART regimens and optimizing long-term ART, and care to manage non-AIDS-related chronic complications are recommended actions to reduce mortality. Not least, fostering women's inclusion, justice, peace, and security in conflict zones is critical in preventing premature deaths in the general population as well as among PLHIV.

Catch-22: War, Refugees, COVID-19, and the Scourge of Antimicrobial Resistance.

Wars have hidden repercussions beyond the immediate losses of life, well-being, and prosperity. Those that flee wars and seek refuge in safer locations are not immune to the tragic impacts. Of particular concern is the susceptibility of the refugee populations to infectious diseases and antimicrobial-resistant pathogens. This poses a detrimental risk to these disenfranchised populations, who often have limited access to medical care, sanitation, and nutritious and safe food. Furthermore, antimicrobial-resistant pathogens in refugees can be both transmitted to and acquired from their hosting communities. The latter is particularly problematic when the host countries suffer from serious challenges such as limited resources, pollution, and widespread antimicrobial resistance (AMR). Here, we discuss AMR in refugees of the ongoing Syrian war, a conflict that resulted in the largest population displacement in recent history. We argue that Syrian refugees and their hosting communities are at an elevated risk of complicated and life-threatening AMR infections. We also call on the international community to address this grievous problem that threatens the disenfranchised refugee populations and can spill over across geographic borders to affect multiple countries.

Impact of periodic intensification of routine immunization within an armed conflict setting and COVID-19 outbreak in Cameroon in 2020.

INTRODUCTION: Cameroon's Southwest Region (SW) has been hit by an armed conflict for over half a decade now, negatively affecting the region's routine immunization and disease surveillance activities. This negative effect was further acerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic, which alongside the conflict, caused thousands of children to miss out on life-saving vaccinations. Herein, we present the contribution of periodic intensification of routine immunization in improving immunization and surveillance activities amid crises. METHOD: Periodic intensification of routine immunization (PIRI) and disease surveillance were carried out in three rounds per health district. Before the intervention, the security profile of each district involved was reviewed. Data for this study was extracted on vaccination and surveillance activities from the District Health Information Software and monthly regional reports for 2019 and 2020 from the SW delegation of health. RESULTS: 54,242 persons were vaccinated in the SW following these interventions. An increase in performance was observed in all 18 health districts in 2020 compared to 2019. Both DPT-HebB-Heb-3 vaccine and OPV-3 coverage rose by 28% points. Similarly, the proportion of health districts that investigated at least a case of acute flaccid paralysis increased by 83%, rising from just three districts in 2019 to all 18 in 2020. CONCLUSION: PIRI was a practical approach to improving vaccination coverage and surveillance indicators in this region amidst the ongoing armed conflict and COVID-19 pandemic.

When COVID-19 Met Families Living in Armed-Conflict Zones: The Importance of Maternal Trauma and Child Self-Regulation.

The COVID-19 outbreak began in Israel at the end of February 2020, and on March 17, 2020, a general lockdown was announced. Families were instructed to stay at home and schools and non-essential businesses were closed. Aiming to understand how families who were already living in areas of high exposure to armed conflict would be affected by another external stressful condition, data were collected before and after the outbreak. Mothers and children (aged 10-45 months) were recruited from areas with high (n = 40) and low (n = 78) exposure to armed conflict. Mothers reported on their posttraumatic stress symptoms (PTSS) and on their child's effortful control tendencies prior to the outbreak. Toward the end of the first lockdown, mothers were interviewed regarding adverse effects of the outbreak on their family. No group differences were found for maternal perceptions of adverse effects of COVID-19. However, a moderation model was revealed, indicating that maternal PTSS as well as child effortful control predicted adverse effects of COVID-19 only in the high-exposure group. Results are discussed considering cumulative stress and risk factors.